End of Mayan Cycle

Today marks the end of the Mayan cycle, and pundits are taking advantage of the occasion to talk about disasters. I find it interesting that so few talk about nuclear EMP terrorism. People seem to prefer the thought of natural disasters or economic collapse, crises driven by some relentless but dispassionate force. The idea that their doom could result from the whim of some petty dictator in Iran or North Korea adds insult to injury.

The end of the Mayan cycle coincides with the holiday season and the end of 2012. This blog deals with sobering issues, so it is good to remember occasionally that there is hope for the future, that the broad sweep of history is toward betterment of humankind. While we work to secure ourselves from realistic dangers, we should take some time to appreciate what we now have. I wish my readers a happy new year!

North Korea Could Launch an EMP Attack Now

Washington Times ran an article suggesting that North Korea has already achieved the capability of launching an EMP attack on the US:

North Korea now has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States, as demonstrated by their successful launch and orbiting of a satellite on Dec. 12. Certain poorly informed pundits among the chattering classes reassure us that North Korea is still years away from being able to miniaturize warheads for missile delivery, and from developing sufficiently accurate missiles to pose a serious nuclear threat to the United States. Philip Yun, director of San Francisco’s Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear disarmament group, reportedly said, “The real threat from the launch was an overreaction that would lead to more defense spending on unnecessary systems. The sky is not falling. We shouldn’t be panicked.”

In fact, North Korea is a mortal nuclear threat to the United States— right now.

North Korea has already successfully tested and developed nuclear weapons. It has also already miniaturized nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery and has armed missiles with nuclear warheads. In 2011, the director of the Defense Intelligence AgencyLt. General Ronald Burgess, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that North Korea has weaponized its nuclear devices into warheads for ballistic missiles.

North Korea has labored for years and starved its people so it could develop an intercontinental missile capable of reaching the United States. Why? Because they have a special kind of nuclear weapon that could destroy the United States with a single blow.

In summer 2004, a delegation of Russian generals warned the Congressional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission that secrets had leaked to North Korea for a decisive new nuclear weapon — a Super-EMP warhead.

Any nuclear weapon detonated above an altitude of 30 kilometers will generate an electromagnetic pulse that will destroy electronics and could collapse the electric power grid and other critical infrastructures — communications, transportation, banking and finance, food and water — that sustain modern civilization and the lives of 300 million Americans. All could be destroyed by a single nuclear weapon making an EMP attack.

A Super-EMP attack on the United States would cause much more and much deeper damage than a primitive nuclear weapon, and so would increase confidence that the catastrophic consequences will be irreversible. Such an attack would inflict maximum damage and be optimum for realizing a world without America.

Both North Korean nuclear tests look suspiciously like a Super-EMP weapon. A Super-EMP warhead would have a low yield, like the North Korean device, because it is not designed to create a big explosion, but to convert its energy into gamma rays, that generate the EMP effect. Reportedly South Korean military intelligence concluded, independent of the EMP Commission, that Russian scientists are in North Korea helping develop a Super-EMP warhead. In 2012, a military commentator for the People’s Republic of China stated that North Korea has Super-EMP nuclear warheads.

A Super-EMP warhead would not weigh much, and could probably be delivered by North Korea’s ICBM. The missile does not have to be accurate, as the EMP field is so large that detonating anywhere over the United States would have catastrophic consequences. The warhead does not even need a re-entry vehicle, as an EMP attack entails detonating the warhead at high-altitude, above the atmosphere.

So, as of Dec. 12, North Korea’s successful orbit of a satellite demonstrates its ability to make an EMP attack against the United States — right now.

The Congressional EMP Commission estimates that, given the nation’s current unpreparedness, within one year of an EMP attack, two-thirds of the U.S. population — 200 million Americans — would probably perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse.

Thus, North Korea now has an Assured Destruction capability against the United States. The consequences of this development are so extremely grave that U.S. and global security have, in effect, gone over the “strategic cliff” into free-fall. Where we will land, into what kind of future, is as yet unknown.

Nevertheless, some very bad developments are foreseeable. Iran will certainly be inspired by North Korea’s example to persist in the development of its own nuclear weapon and ICBM programs to pose a mortal threat to the United States. Indeed, North Korea and Iran have been collaborating all along.

If North Korea and Iran both acquire the capability to threaten America with EMP genocide, this will destroy the foundations of the existing world order, which has since 1945 halted the cycle of world wars and sustained the global advancement of freedom. North Korea and Iran being armed with Assured Destruction capability changes the whole strategic calculus of risk for the United States in upholding its superpower role, and will erode the confidence of U.S. allies — perhaps to the point where they will need to develop their own nuclear weapons.

Most alarming, we are fast moving to a place where, for the first time in history, failed little states like North Korea and Iran, that cannot even feed their own people, will have power in their hands to blackmail or destroy the largest and most successful societies on Earth. North Korea and Iran perceive themselves to be at war with the United States, and are desperate, highly unpredictable characters. When the mob is at the gates of their dictators, will they want to take America with them down into darkness?

North Korea Orbits Satellite

North Korea recently launched a satellite into polar orbit, demonstrating its capability to send payloads anywhere on Earth. The question now is whether they have managed to reduce the size of their nuclear weapons to what their rockets can handle. If so, they are able to threaten anyone anywhere.

What the newspapers fail to mention is that a satellite may itself be a nuclear weapon, patiently waiting for the signal to detonate when it passes over its target. It wouldn’t even have to leave orbit if it were used as a HEMP (high altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse) weapon. No one would know that the satellite was not just for weather or communications, so there would be no warning at all before a country’s electronics were fried.

On the other hand, when the satellite exploded, our military would know it was the one launched by North Korea, and that nation would be punished. They must realize that, so we can hope that this will restrain them from using a satellite this way.

Where’s the Wheat?

The USA is the world’s preeminent food exporter, so it seems reasonable to suppose that in an emergency we would have huge stockpiles of it sitting around. Consider wheat, which unlike most agricultural products normally has a long shelf life and doesn’t require refrigeration. It is produced in the following states:

TOP TEN WHEAT PRODUCING STATES – 2001 Spring Wheat – Amounts in Bushels (1000): North Dakota 234,600; Minnesota 79,200; Montana 65,550; South Dakota 64,350; Idaho 33,320; Washington 25,830; Oregon 5,250; Colorado 3,168; Utah 784; Wisconsin 360.

Notice that wheat is grown far from population centers. Companies like Cargill buy it from farmers in the fall and store it in huge grain silos at railheads, shipping it out as needed. So if you happen to live in a place like North Dakota, you don’t have to look far for wheat berry. If you want the wheat transported somewhere else, or processed into flour, that’s a problem. There is no power for flour mills or for pumping diesel fuel into trucks. If you managed somehow to drive a wheat-laden truck into a city, your cargo would probably be stolen by thieves or commandeered by local authorities. What could they pay you with, anyway?

Nor would the wheat stored at railheads last long. Normally there is a screw mechanism in silos that continuously circulates the grain, killing pest insects and preventing mildew. Without power, the grain would rot or be eaten by pests before much of it could be eaten by people.

I’m not a farmer and I look forward to hearing from someone more knowledgeable that the situation is not as bad as I’ve described.

 

Second Nuclear Age

Paul Bracken just published The Second Nuclear Agewhich examines the implications of nuclear proliferation. He criticizes American strategic thinkers for downplaying the importance of nuclear weapons in world politics, and for letting America’s nuclear stockpile become antiquated.

Although Bracken adds useful perspectives to the conversation about world politics, he fails to address the threat of EMP weapons. This surprises me, because the damage a single nuclear weapon can do through an electromagnetic pulse vastly exceeds any blast damage it might cause. He does mention that some weapons can affect communications and the electric grid, but he seems to regard these as short term problems and does not appreciate the grim and profound implications. For example, it does not make a big difference whether an enemy has one or one hundred nuclear warheads; he can destroy a large country with just a single warhead used to generate an HEMP.

The only good thing about EMP weapons is that all nations are vulnerable. This is good because it serves as an incentive to work together to find solutions. Israel and China may develop hardening technical fixes or antimissile defenses that can be used by everyone. Instead of the US saving Israel, Israel may save the US, if we can all just survive the next few years.

Seed Repositories

In my “Symmetric Warfare” post, I wrote

The best solution I’ve come up with is for people to camp out on farms and defend them…

The question is, how do you get from here to there? Lots of planning and cash is necessary to store enough food to feed not only the farmers, but volunteers from the city. Farms are so spread out that it would be hard to defend them all. One approach is to concentrate your defensive efforts on particular farms, which I will call “seed repositories.” A seed repository stores seed for planting crops for a group of farms, and serves as a refuge for nearby farmers. At the onset of a serious emergency, pre-arranged volunteers would come to each seed repository to help defend it. In return, the volunteers would be fed and sheltered (perhaps in tents) during the crisis.

Seed repositories might be financed in part by dues from memberships. After all, aside from the practical benefits of repositories, preserving the productive capacity of farms during times of disaster is a noble effort to be part of. It is also a worthy cause to donate to, and might draw substantial donations from wealthy people who worry about the future.

Symmetric Warfare

A nuclear EMP would cause prolonged grid failure. This in turn would cause famine and widespread violence. Wandering gangs of thugs would methodically plunder homes. They would have the advantage of superior numbers, of experience, and of surprise. Normally  the police deal with such gangs, but police are likely to stay home with their hungry and defenseless families, and are too few in any case.

Neighbors could join together to defend themselves, but unless they planned ahead, they would have less food and fewer weapons than the gang members. At best, they might achieve parity, a kind of “symmetric warfare” in which for every bad guy killed, one good guy dies. These are not very attractive odds if there are lots of bad guys.

The best solution I’ve come up with is for people to camp out on farms and defend them, using defensive walls and open fields of fire to improve the odds. Besides, if farms are ruined, everyone will starve eventually, no matter how much food they have stored.

Afterthought – Symmetric warfare is scary to bad guys too. They would rather have the advantage, and if a neighborhood puts up a brave defense, they may well retreat and  move on to easier prey.

EMP and Nuclear Reactors

A recent news item announces the success of a small-scale electromagnetic pulse weapon mounted in a cruise missile and used to selectively disable electronics in particular buildings. While this directed EMP generator is being developed for military purposes, imagine this weapon deployed against nuclear reactors, none of which are hardened against this sort of attack. As we saw in Fukushima, reactors which lose every source of power will self-destruct.

A nuclear HEMP (high altitude EMP) would simultaneously destroy dozens of reactors, possibly causing them to spew radioactive dust across the countryside. It’s a shame that such a reliable and self-contained source of energy has been designed with no consideration of the hazard of EMP. A high priority going forward is to choose reactor designs which are safe when all the lights go out, and which can be restarted without off-site power after replacing damaged electronics.

How Much Food To Store?

Your location and the time of year of an EMP event both make a big difference in how much food you need to store. Most people who have thought about this conclude that Spring is the worst time for an Event, since loss of power would interfere with the planting. If you live in the corn belt, then the best time for an Event is right after the harvest, but before the corn is packed and sent off to processing plants out of state. In theory, you wouldn’t have to store much food if you live near a grain silo, especially if the silo has just been filled.

If you live in a big city, no amount of food storage is going to ensure your longterm survival, because eventually it will run out and you’ll have to move to the countryside.

I live in Oregon, where most of the fields are growing grass seed, so for me the least harmful time for the Pulse to occur might be prior to the planting in May. The Pulse would induce farmers to plant more food crops. In my part of Oregon, not much food is stored locally, so storing food to last until the next harvest is important. I figure I should store a year’s worth of food, just in case the Pulse occurs too late in the summer to allow extra food crop plantings. If I store enough food for 8 people for 1 year (8 people-years), and then the Pulse occurs in May (3 months until harvest), then I can instead feed 8 x 12/3 = 32 people with that same amount of food.

No matter where you live, eventually all stored food will run out, and there will be a shift to food planted after the Event. So it may be worth thinking how we can make sure that farms get the seeds, water, and tractor fuel they need to remain productive.

 

Leaving Cities

After a pulse event, cities are a poor place to be. There may be a business opportunity in saving the lives of people in port cities. Someone could arrange for ships to take people to safety in another country. Everything would have to be preplanned in detail, including how to avoid swamping the vessel with too many refugees. People could take rowboats to ferries, then the ferries could wait in open water to meet ocean-going ships coming from unaffected areas. There would have to be some food and water and fuel already on board the ferries since it would take perhaps a week for the ships to arrive,  and EMP-damaged ferry electronics would have to be bypassed or quickly replaceable. Prospective passengers would probably pre-pay half their tickets, and pay half in gold on boarding the ferry (the second half serves as incentive not to leave anyone behind). Refugees would also need gold coins so they would have resources when they reached the next country (Brazil?). The world would probably be in economic collapse, and without food exports from the US, there would be widespread hunger.